Study Guide: Risks on the Horizon

Short-Answer Quiz

Answer the following questions in 2-3 sentences each, based on the information provided in the source document.

What is the stated purpose of the "Risks on the Horizon" study as presented by the EU Policy Lab?
The report mentions that decision-makers operate in a world with "TUNA conditions." What does this acronym stand for, and what challenges do these conditions present?
Define the term "snapshot of the future" and explain its function within the study's foresight methodology.
According to the Delphi survey results, which three specific risks were assessed as being potentially existential for humanity?
Describe the primary role and operational mindset of the EU Policy Lab as outlined in the report.
What is a "futures wheel," and how was this foresight method utilized in the research process for this report?
Provide an example from the report that illustrates how a single potential future development can lead to both a risk and an opportunity.
Within the "Failure of the green transition" risk cluster, what specific challenge does the European Union's dependency on critical raw materials pose?
How does the study define the "seriousness of a risk," and what two factors are used in its assessment?
What is the key conclusion of the study regarding the interconnectedness of risks and the implication for policy-making?

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Answer Key

The study presents a foresight approach aimed at increasing preparedness for unexpected developments and the risks they could create. It seeks to complement traditional risk assessment methods by providing additional perspectives that help policymakers envision alternative futures, get prepared, and steer away from danger.
TUNA stands for Turbulence, Uncertainty, Novelty, and Ambiguity. These conditions pose challenges for political decision-makers by making it difficult to assess risks, make regulations, plan for the long-term, and keep up with the speed of developments.
A "snapshot of the future" is a plausible image of a possible hypothetical future, built using weak signals. Its function is to help readers think "out-of-the-box" and make sense of developments that could be impactful by depicting a world where a certain change has become a reality.
The three risks assessed by the Delphi survey as potentially existential for humanity are: environmental degradation, environmental disasters, and loss of power by humans.
The EU Policy Lab is a space for cross-disciplinary exploration and innovation in policymaking, applying collaborative, systemic, and forward-looking approaches. Its mindset combines stories and data, anticipation and analysis, and imagination and action to bring new perspectives to complex problems.
A "futures wheel" is a foresight method that explores the knock-on effects of future developments to encourage non-linear thinking. In this study, it was used in participatory exercises to explore first, second, and third-order cause-and-effect impacts stemming from the "snapshots of the future," ultimately identifying potential risks and opportunities.
The development of "societies across the globe are less connected" presents a risk of armed conflict due to reduced communication and more protectionist policies. Simultaneously, it creates an opportunity for climate change mitigation due to a reduction in long-distance travel and transport of goods.
The European Union's dependency on imports of critical raw materials, which are essential for green technologies like batteries and solar panels, makes it vulnerable to export restrictions from supplying countries. This dependency poses a challenge for reaching climate goals and risks the success of the green transition.
The "seriousness of a risk" is defined as the assessment of how dangerous a risk is. This assessment is based on its severity (how much harm it causes) and its scope (how many people or generations are affected).
The study concludes that risks are interconnected and should not be examined in isolation or within policy silos, as developments in one area (e.g., technology) can lead to risks in another (e.g., society). This implies that policymakers need transdisciplinary forums and collaboration across administrations to coordinate actions and prepare for cascading effects.

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Essay Questions

The following questions are designed for deeper analysis and synthesis of the report's content. Answers are not provided.

Discuss the holistic foresight approach presented in the study, detailing its key stages from "weak signals" to the "seriousness of risks." How does this methodology aim to reveal blind spots that traditional risk assessment might miss?
Select two of the ten risk clusters (e.g., "Erosion of democracy" and "Social division"). Analyze the potential interdependencies and cascading effects between them, using specific "potential future developments" from the report to support your argument.
The report identifies "environmental degradation" and "environmental disasters" as existential risks. Elaborate on the "Failure of the green transition" risk cluster, explaining the various development pathways that could lead to these catastrophic outcomes.
The study emphasizes that "the keys to positive futures are in our own hands" because development pathways can lead to opportunities as well as risks. Using detailed examples from at least three different risk clusters, analyze this duality and discuss the challenge it presents for decision-makers trying to mitigate risks while reaping potential benefits.
Analyze the "End of dominance of humans" risk cluster. Explain the different factors contributing to this risk, such as the push for non-human rights and the increasing reliance on Artificial Intelligence, and discuss the potential societal consequences outlined in the report.

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Glossary of Key Terms

Term	Definition
Authoritarianism	A risk within the "Erosion of democracy" cluster, potentially triggered by the manipulation of society's beliefs or a loss of trust in political institutions.
Cause-and-effect-chain	A chain of developments comprising an initial event in the future, two knock-on effects, and a risk or opportunity.
Delphi survey	An iterative survey where participants can revise their answers based on what other participants are answering or commenting. Used in the study to assess the seriousness of identified risks.
EU Policy Lab	A cross-disciplinary space within the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre for exploration and innovation in policymaking, using collaborative, systemic, and forward-looking approaches.
Existential risk	A risk threatening the premature end of intelligent life originating from Earth.
Foresight	An approach to exploring alternative futures based on the fundamental premise that the future can be influenced and shaped. It complements traditional risk management by challenging assumptions and improving disaster resilience.
Futures wheel	A foresight method that looks into knock-on effects of future developments to encourage non-linear thinking.
Globally-catastrophic risk	A risk threatening human well-being at a global scope. A risk becomes globally catastrophic if its scope is global or wider and its severity is endurable or more severe.
Horizon scanning	A foresight method that aims to spot emerging developments at an early stage and to help understand their consequences. It is a structured activity to detect "weak signals."
Knock-on effect	An effect that is triggered by an initial event in the future.
Opportunity	A future outcome that is positive (in this study, the end point of a cause-and-effect chain).
Potential future development	An overarching development that is triggered by an initial event in the future (described in a snapshot of the future), comprising several cause-and-effect chains.
Risk	A future outcome that is negative (in this study, the end point of a cause-and-effect chain). The study uses the definition: "the possibility of an undesired effect associated with an event, or an activity."
Seriousness of a risk	The assessment of how dangerous a risk is, based on its severity and scope.
Snapshot of the future	A plausible image of the future built using weak signals and depicting a possible hypothetical future to help readers to think out-of-the-box.
STEEP	An acronym standing for Societal, Technological, Economic, Environmental, and (Geo)Political issues, used as a framework for holistic analysis.
TUNA conditions	An acronym for Turbulence, Uncertainty, Novelty, and Ambiguity, which characterizes the challenging world that decision-makers face.
Weak signal	Evidence pointing towards an emerging development that could have an impact on the future. These were used as the starting point for creating the "snapshots of the future."