During the last 10 days, I have been enjoying late evening posts from business leaders and thought leaders from around the world reporting back from this year's World Economic Forum (WEF) in the beautiful Swiss Alp city of Davos.
A couple of words on the World Economic Forum in Davos: It was founded back in 1971 by Prof. Klaus Schwab (still around!), and was initially centered around Prof. Schwab's 'Stakeholder Theory', where businesses would serve all stakeholders, rather just shareholders, including employees, suppliers and the wider community. Today, it is an event that is designed to 'address global problems and find solutions to the world's most pressing challenges'. It brings together close to 3'000 business leaders (out of which 600 CEOs), political leaders and media representatives for a week of intense exchange and debate. It was also great to see that the Diabetes Care industry was represented (with the presence of Novo Nordisk senior executives).
Whilst a lot of the debate this year was about the war in Ukraine, the energy crisis and climate change, there was another concept that brought my attention which I wanted to share with you today.
The concept of a 'VUCA world' (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, Ambiguous) has been used for decades as way to describe how the world has gone crazy, and how to try to make some sense out of it. But now, the world has moved from being VUCA to being a BANI world. The concept of BANI has been around for a year or two, but it was only through the Davos debriefs that it caught my attention. The concept of BANI truly resonated with me, as it puts people - you & me - at the center of the problem, but also of the solution. BANI stands for Brittle, Anxious, Non-Linear and Incomprehensible. The creator of this concept is Jamais Cascio, an American anthropologist, futurist, and author. Triggered by the various crises the world is facing, he concluded that existing concepts such as VUCA are not appropriate for a rapidly evolving world. A new concept was needed, and this was BANI. The first time I heard these words, I did scratch by head as a non-native English speaking person. So here is some more 'meat on the bone' on each of these definitions:
Brittle - The Illusion of Strength: Brittle actually means fragile & breakable, yet seeming firm and strong. In other words, it is not as strong as it seems. It is an illusory strength, the belief that 'Everything will be alright' and the assumptions that 'We all know are true'. Except they are not. Brittle refers to the myths that people tell themselves and each other to feel better and more secure.
Anxious - The Illusion of Control: Anxiety refers to a feeling of helplessness, of being overwhelmed by everything the world is facing. It can also largely be a result of (too much) information. The more people hear and see, especially bad news, the more anxious they get. Because, there’s only so much one can do. And with real-time news coming from all over the world, bombarding us 24/7, it is no surprise that people become anxious—because they’re not in control anymore.
Like the Brittle concept, this says more about people than about the world. Anxiety is a subjective feeling caused by a gap between what one expects and what one experiences. People expect control and for a long time they have been able to hold on to that illusion. The last decades may have been relatively quiet in the Western world, but unrest, war, and crises have always been a normal part of life on this planet. This means people have never been in control.
Non-Linear - The Illusion of Predictability: To a certain extent, this one is somewhat similar to Uncertain and Ambiguous, yet it is different. Non-linearity is already a popular concept for a longer time. In innovation, for example it basically says: there’s no simple straight route from A to B. Instead, there are detours, dead ends, and unexpected outcomes. It’s also part of the common vocabulary in statistics, where it refers to a relationship between two or more variables that is not a straight line. The fact that people increasingly talk about non-linearity again doesn’t say anything about the world in which they live. Non-linearity has always been there and it is a natural feature of any complex system.
What is new and highlighted by the BANI concept is that there is now increased awareness of the non-linearity of our world. This breaks a third illusion, the Illusion of Predictability.
Incomprehensible - The Illusion of Knowledge: Finally, incomprehensible refers to people’s experience that they don’t understand what is going on. They can’t grasp it, can’t interpret what happens, and why. This means they can’t find the answers they are looking for and, as far as they do get answers, that they can’t make sense of the answers either.
This comes with a fourth illusion, the Illusion of Knowledge. People might have thought they understood the world. But they never have. It is for this reason that experts and scientists frequently say things as “the more I know, the more I realize I don’t know.” The world is a mystery, despite the carefully built up illusion that we understand it. And maybe that’s not something to worry about. On the contrary, it makes the world and our lives worthwhile - and creates a sense of mystery of what might come.
As I reflect on the last couple of years of world events: Covid-19, war in Ukraine, energy crisis, rising inflation, rising interest rates - just to mention a few - then it does give me some comfort to read about BANI. It does not necessarily make it easier to understand how to deal with it, but it is reassuring to know that it is not only me who thinks the world is getting crazier - there are actually many of us out there who feel the same way. More importantly, it reminded me that BANI is all about perceptions, about how we perceive the world - not necessarily how the world is. It is not the world that has become more Brittle, Anxious, Non-Linear, or Incomprehensible. It is us who finally have to let go the illusion that it is not.
As such, BANI is a great reminder for all of us. We’re living in a world that’s 'delicate, uncontrollable, unpredictable and impossible to comprehend'. Let's embrace the world how it is - but also acknowledge the role each of us can play as individuals to make the world better - even just a little bit. I will end with a quote from John F. Kennedy: 'One person can make a difference, and everyone should try'.
Which part of BANI resonated most with you? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments.
