Raphael Thys
OUR NEXT ENERGY (ONE) 752-mile Tesla
What’s holding battery technology back from achieving the significant advancements that are often advertised by third parties but not brought to fruition on a production vehicle?
We’ve seen the headlines of firms advertising incredible innovations in battery technology that could in theory increase electric vehicle range.
These usually equate to a multiple of 2–4x over production range, sometimes even higher.
The most recent example is of a Tesla Model S that was able to travel 752 miles with a custom battery pack from a Michigan startup called Our Next Energy (ONE).
In this instance it isn’t simply theoretical. It’s a practical number demonstrated by real-world driving affected by mid-winter temperatures, an average speed of 55mph, and a variety of driving scenarios.
ONE plans to develop the battery as a consumer product called Gemini. It’s a retrofit that replaces the entire battery pack of Model S, taking up the same space yet doubling battery capacity in the latest iteration from 103.9kWh to 207.3kWh.
The battery technology is sound on paper: it utilizes the lithium iron-phosphate structure that Elon Musk has praised as being more sustainable.
ONE is supplementing LFP cells with a portion of the battery intended for extreme power needs that will reduce deterioration in the bulk of the battery pack. These cells will use an anode that’s been modified to eliminate graphite, making more volume available for the cathode. This portion of the battery pack will be utilized for 1% of the vehicle’s overall duty cycle.
But frankly we don’t need to get into the exact science of it. The proof-of-concept prototype battery is powered by different cells than those that are intended for the production version, which is slated for 2023 or later. The purpose was to demonstrate that it’s possible to pack almost double the amount of energy into the same amount of battery real estate that’s used today.
We aren’t sure exactly how they achieved it, and the exact methodolgy or science isn’t what the company focused on when discussing the test with press. Rather, it’s one of many proof-of-concepts that the world has seen.
In all likelihood Gemini may not make it to market, if past efforts by other startups are to be looked to for guidance. Hypothetically efforts like this could revitalize used Tesla’s in particular, as the company’s goal is to retrofit vehicles rather than to produce their own or partner with automakers.
It’s a shame, but battery technology isn’t quite as straightforward: it’s not an area where we’re likely to see a major revolutionary advancement, despite many companies trying to do so and the impact it could have on the world.
Lest we forget that smartphones and all of the devices in our lives use lithium-ion batteries which up until this point haven’t been notably different than what’s used in electric vehicles, besides the quantity used in a vehicle’s battery pack being significantly greater by around 2,000x. If there was a major revolution in battery technology then it could become one of the greatest inventions of the modern era.
It’s been over two decades since lithium-ion batteries began being utilized in a commercial capacity, and in that timeframe the improvements have been firmly evolutionary.
Tesla co-founder Marc Tarpenning remarked to the Wall Street Journal:
“When we started Tesla in 2003, the batteries were just good enough, but what we had noticed was that they got better at about 7% to 8% a year, and had for a long time. It’s been 19 years, and we still haven’t had a step change in battery capacity — it just ticks along at 7% to 8% per year.”
Indeed, Tarpenning is correct: battery technology has had a linear progression of a consistent 8% average year-over-year.
Lithium-ion batteries present an intricate science, involving a myriad of chemical reactions that occur each time a cell is charged then subsequently discharged.
It’s a reason that battery health and therefore capacity decreases over time, and that no battery technology has been able to overcome this major drawback.
There are lithium-sulfur batteries referenced in the article, which would theoretically hold ten times the capacity of lithium-ion batteries. However, they would break down completely after one or two charge cycles making them unusable for use cases where they would need to be recharged.
That’s the problem many battery scientists face: a theoretical battery technology improvement can end up not being practical for production, or specifically the power and cost demands of electric vehicles.
Ultimately, that’s what makes Tesla’s 4680 battery cells so important.
It’s a next-generation battery technology developed by teams at Tesla directly, yielding significant real-world improvements in cost and range.
So important, in fact, that Tesla held its own Battery Day event last year highlighting all of the advancements and inherent benefits of its new technology.
The total benefits presented of 4680 cells include a 54% increase in range, a 56% reduction in cost per kWh, and even a 69% reduction in investment per GWH.
This could enable a Model S that surpasses 600 miles of range before ONE is able to bring their Gemini battery pack to market.
More importantly, the priority is to reduce the cost of electric vehicles which predominantly comes from its expensive battery packs. This should one day enable a $25,000 Tesla.
Tesla’s 4680 battery cells could be viewed as an improvement in battery technology that surpasses the typical 8%. Effectively, the battery team at Tesla isn’t being given enough credit. Advancements at this level are unheard of in the battery sector.
Not only do 4680 cells work on paper, but Tesla has begun production at its own Fremont pilot plant with plans for suppliers including Panasonic to reach volume production by 2024.
The problem is that it may be a long time before we see a true generational leap, and investments in the space require billions of dollars.
Nonetheless, we wouldn’t be surprised based on the evolution achieved by 4680 cells if Tesla is the company to achieve the next major leap in battery technology.
It may be decades at this rate before we see a 2,000-mile Tesla, but do consumers need it? Lowering the cost of battery cells and advancements in fast charging are more critical to the electric vehicle movement.
Even finding ways to prevent battery degradation could be more valuable as battery technology is already lending itself to all-day smartphone batteries and adequate electric vehicle range. Once 4680 cells enter volume production we’ll see a base range rating of no less than 300 miles on Tesla’s vehicles, and a max that could be in excess of 700 miles — the second-generation Roadster is already advertised at 620 miles.
Tesla’s own 4680 battery cells are momentous in an industry that’s strived for innovation yet consistently faces linear progression.
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