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Raphael Thys
UN Climate Change News, 4 November 2021 – UN Climate Change today informed all Parties and observers of the latest key messages from the synthesis of climate action plans as communicated in countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). It takes into account the latest 14 submissions or updates received since the publication of the update of the key findings on 25 October.
The Synthesis Report was requested by Parties to the Paris Agreement to assist them in assessing the progress of climate action ahead of the UN Climate Change Conference (COP26) this November in Glasgow, Scotland. This update of the Synthesis Report is being provided to ensure that Parties have the latest information to consider at COP26.
This key messages, which takes into account the implementation of the 166 latest available NDCs from all 193 Parties to the Paris Agreement, including the 124 new or updated NDCs communicated by 151 Parties, recorded in the interim NDC registry as at 2 November 2021, are summarized in the table below:
Estimate in gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Gt CO2 eq) | Change compared to 2010, on average (%) | |
Total global GHG emissions (without LULUCF) in 2030 | 53.8 (50.8–56.9) | +13.7 |
Total GHG emissions in 2030 for the 151 Parties that communicated new or updated NDCs | 40.4 (38.5–42.2) | +5.9 |
Total GHG emissions in 2030 for the 74 Parties with long-term mitigation visions, strategies and targets | 29.7 (29.0 to 30.4) | -5.2 |
Further, for the 74 Parties that provided information on long-term mitigation visions, strategies and targets for up to and beyond 2050, total GHG emissions are estimated to be 70–79 per cent lower in 2050 than in 2019.
The figure below shows the latest updated comparison of global emissions under scenarios assessed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C with total global emissions according to nationally determined contributions.
The latest update shows that for all available NDCs of all 193 Parties taken together, a sizable increase, of about 13.7%, in global GHG emissions in 2030 compared to 2010 is anticipated.
The IPCC has estimated that limiting global average temperature increases to 1.5C requires a reduction of CO2 emissions of 45% in 2030 or a 25% reduction by 2030 to limit warming to 2C. If emissions are not reduced by 2030, they will need to be substantially reduced thereafter to compensate for the slow start on the path to net zero emissions, but likely at a higher cost.
Parties can submit NDCs or update already submitted NDCs at any time, including during COP26.
Many NDCs from developing countries contain more ambitious conditional commitments to reduce emissions, which can only be implemented with access to enhanced financial resources and other support. The report suggests that the full implementation of these components could allow for global emissions to peak before 2030.
The majority of Parties provided information on the intention to make use of voluntary cooperation under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, which refers to market mechanisms and non-market approaches. Almost all of them indicated that they plan to use at least one type of cooperation mechanism or approach.
Read the update of the key findings of the full NDC synthesis report here.
Read the full NDC synthesis report here.