Crisis in Africa: Future wars could be for water, not oil - India Today

Lack of water across water bodies of the world could intensify existing tensions among countries and bring about social unrest.

Scientists and think tanks opine that wars of the future will be fought over water. (Reuters)

By Saikiran Kannan: Scientists and think tanks opine that wars of the future will be fought over water. Yes, you read that right.

As climate change and population growth make water scarcer, a report from the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre estimates that there’s a 75-90 per cent chance of wars being fought over water within the next century. The report was estimated using advance machine-learning algorithms which identified five hotspots for potential conflicts where multiple countries shared the same water body.

The hotspots identified were the Ganges-Brahmaputra region, where the water flows through Bangladesh and India; the Colorado river, which runs through the United States and Mexico; the Indus region, which has water bodies separating India and Pakistan; the Tigris-Euphrates, which flows through Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Iran and Kuwait; and finally, the Nile that runs through 11 African countries.

Lack of water across these water bodies could intensify existing tensions among countries and bring about social unrest.

The River Nile has sowed mystery and myth from the time of the ancient Greeks, including Alexander the Great. The river is also a symbol of romance in many a story transcending generations. But today, she could become the cause for a world at war.

Treaties signed in 1929 and 1959 provided water rights to Egypt and Sudan. These treaties also meant that no other country could construct dams or infrastructure that could reduce the share of water to these two countries. Egypt relies on the Nile for 90 per cent of its water needs. But the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) by Ethiopia in association with China without the approval of Egypt or Sudan has made matters edgy in the region.

Tensions between the countries are at their highest after Ethiopia completed the second stage of filling the dam this week, raising the risk of water shortage for downstream Egyptians. It is reported that Ethiopia has diverted around 13.5 billion cubic meters of water from the Nile for the second stage.

The contention

The dispute has been going on since 2011, when Ethiopia began construction of GERD. The total cost of the project is an estimated $5 billion, which is roughly 7 per cent of Ethiopia’s GDP. Once completed, the dam will be able to bring electricity to over 50 per cent of Ethiopians who currently do not have it. GERD will also control the flow of the Blue Nile, the major tributary of Nile. This tributary supplies around 85 per cent of water to the Nile.

Upon completion, GERD will be the biggest hydroelectric power plant in Africa, capable of generating up to 6,450 megawatts of electricity.

Egypt is vulnerable to changes in water flow, but upstream countries in recent years have started challenging the monopoly Egypt is perceived to hold on Nile.

The three countries in focus Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia have been engaging in constant dialogue ever since the initiation of the project in 2011. The tripartite negotiations over operating the dam and filling the reservoir were stalled after Ethiopia rejected the agreement achieved under the supervision of USA in February this year under the leadership of Donald Trump.

Ethiopia’s primary reservation centres on Egypt’s arguments citing its so-called historical rights to Nile water. Egypt has constantly resorted to seeking help from external mediators such as the United States, United Nations, and also the World Bank. But there has been no major success in these pursuits. The African Union is also encouraging the three countries to break the stalemate.

Major concerns for Egypt and Sudan

The source of Nile river is Lake Victoria in Uganda. It flows north, and the basin passes through 11 countries, namely Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, Kenya, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Eritrea, South Sudan, Republic of the Sudan and Egypt. Her two main tributaries are White Nile and Blue Nile. The Blue Nile begins in Ethiopia at Lake Tana. The two rivers meet north of the Sudanese capital of Khartoum, before it flows into Egypt and through Alexandria to the Mediterranean.

The below GIF shows the progression of dam construction and water levels as of June 23, 2021.

Egypt is the 11th country in the list of countries that the Nile runs through. It is a downstream region that is dependent on the river for 90 per cent of its freshwater resources. Considering that more than 90 per cent of the country is a desert, the significance of the river cannot be understated.

The major point of disagreement for Egypt is the speed of filling up of the 74 billion cubic meter reservoir behind the dam. As Ethiopia just completed the second stage of the same on July 19, Egypt continues to insist that the rapid filling of the reservoir in upstream Ethiopia could cause drastic reduction in water supplies downstream.

On the other side, residents of Sudan on the south fear a repetition of last year’s devastating drought due to alteration of the river’s behaviour. Egypt has proposed that the dam be filled over a period of 15 years, and it is pressing for guarantees that water will be released during times of drought.

A monitoring station located at the border between Ethiopia and Sudan showed that the Nile’s water level has plummeted 100 million cubic meters between July 12 and 13, Sudanese government logs show. The last time they dropped that low was in 1984, the driest year on record.

Ethiopia’s water minister Seleshi Bekele has said publicly that there’s a conspiracy to prevent Ethiopia’s sovereign right to fill the dam. He assured that water flows to Sudan and Egypt will not be interrupted, and filling of the dam will in fact reduce the risk of flooding in Sudan.

The possibility of a war

The longer it drags on, the tenser the situation will get in Africa. Cairo has warned that a military option is not off the table. An armed conflict between two of Africa’s largest nations is a horrific prospect for the continent and the world. Some alliances would join with Egypt and some with Ethiopia, which would plausibly cause a wider war. History shows that this is how world wars have started.

But invading a country like Ethiopia is no cakewalk. Whether it is the geography or the fight that they show, Ethiopia has always been a tough nut to crack. Egypt itself made an attempt way back in 1874 to invade Ethiopia but failed badly. Ethiopia also thwarted efforts by Italy in 1895, but eventually succumbed to them in 1935, before the British took over. The entire period was as bloody as it could get for Ethiopians.

Egypt is mindful of this history and is also aware that threats of war against Ethiopia over GERD do not probably involve an invasion of the entire country. It also does not include an attack on the nearly complete and partially filled reservoir because that would cause an enormous flood downstream in Sudan and Egypt. Military action will also cost huge for both countries in the long run.

Talks have been painstakingly slow and unpopular in Ethiopia and Egypt. Sudan is caught in its own set of issues, having recently overthrown a dictator who had ruled the country as an “Islamic state” that was backed by Iran. It has only recently patched up with the West for economic aid and assistance in resolving the GERD dispute.

From the beginning of the construction, there has been a large military presence around GERD and that will possibly remain after construction is complete. In late 2020, Egypt and Sudan participated in a week-long joint military exercise. Egyptian Air Force aircraft and army commando units also participated in the exercise.

Ethiopia, on the other hand, is already embroiled in fighting in the northern region of Tigray for the past eight months. Its troops have also clashed with Sudanese soldiers in a disputed border region which contains a much-coveted fertile stretch of land.

The way ahead

Both Ethiopia and Egypt see Nile water as an issue of national security and an existential one. As per reports, if the dam is filled, agricultural lands in Upper Egypt will decrease by 29.47 per cent and millions of people will become water insecure.

On the other hand, GERD is vital for Ethiopia which suffers from very low percentage of access to electricity. The Blue Nile accounts for around 70 per cent of water supply to Ethiopians. And for Sudan, the filling up of the reservoir could result in hampering the water flow it needs to sustain its own electricity production and agriculture.

1/3 At #GERD construction the two bottom outlets (BO) that provides release of water into the downstream completed, tested & operational. The 2 BOs have capacity of passing entire annual Abbay flow in a year, provide assurances of flow of water to d/s at no time water interrupted — Dr Eng Seleshi Bekele (@seleshi_b_a) April 18, 2021

Politicians on both sides are under tremendous pressure to counter the moves of one another. A war looks like a very bad option right now. Ethiopia will have a sense of safety owing to the support it enjoys from China and Russia, more so, as GERD is being partly funded by China. But over the past few months, there have been strong provocations on both sides. Some Egyptian news outlets telecast a video threatening military action against GERD and Ethiopia, irking a lot of parties in the latter.

# #__ .. pic.twitter.com/7J0G2lpVIB — (@Nabil_Sharaf) July 11, 2021

Such water conflicts are threatened in many parts of the Middle East and Eurasia. This one, involving Nile and a long delayed economic progress for Ethiopia, is probably one of the worst. A peaceful settlement will provide useful lessons for similar disputes elsewhere.

(The writer is a Singapore-based Open-Source Intelligence analyst)