FORESIGHT
There is probably not one single approach that makes the challenges of leading in uncertainty go away.
Developing strategies through foresight could be complimentary to other traditional strategy planning tools. Important is to not underestimate uncertainty!
The level of uncertainty is company-specific and depends on factors such as: level of preparedness, access to proprietary info, but also strategic positioning: is the company mindset towards adapting to the future or more towards actively shaping the future? Gretzky, a major hockey player, said: “A good hockey player plays where the puck is. A great hockey player plays where the puck is going to be.” Thus, it also depends on where companies want to “play”.
The concept of Foresight emerged after World War II as an approach for military planning. Aware of the fact that the enemy can attack from various places and in different ways, they were building scenarios and related strategic responses.
Starting with the 60s, Scenario Planning also entered the business world as it helped leaders working with complex concepts and uncertainties to create coherent and plausible stories about the future they could work with when planning their strategies.
Shell, the Oil and gas company is considered a pioneer in foresight work. In addition to their traditional planning, Shell is developing for almost 50 years scenarios in which their key assumptions or uncertainties are becoming reality. This approach was crucial for the strategic position Shell has taken during the uncertain times of the 1973 Oil Crisis. That also contributed to the fact that in 2 years, from the eight biggest oil & gas company Shell became number two. Currently, there are many companies that have developed such practice with both internal and external experts.
Mockups Design
Maybe you have seen or read reports or publications about the future of a certain domain or industry; few examples of publicly available reports: 4 plausible futures: 2050 Scenarios by Arup, 2020 Strategic Foresight Report by European Commission, Scenarios 2030: Workforce of the future by PwC, The Business World in 2025 by IMD, Retail Scenarios 2025 by Gartner or Paying in 2025: Scenarios for the future of payment. In general, these are reports resulted further to a participatory foresight process, using specific foresight tools for scanning and strategy building.
Foresight helps organizations investigate, not predict, the future.
WAZE ANALOGY
Instead of “Outsmarting traffic, together” we could Outsmart competition, together.
In some aspects, we can think of foresight as a “Waze” for business – instead of “Outsmarting traffic, together” we could Outsmart competition, together.
Using foresight discipline and its tools, we help companies understand the different alternatives (scenarios) that they should consider in their journey planning and choose the one that takes them to the preferred destination.
We also warn them of the different pitfalls (innovations, consumer behaviour change, emerging technologies, trends) that they might encounter on their journey, the same way Waze does with danger ahead alerts. Not all players in an industry reach the same destination; by using foresight as a “Waze” for business, companies could reach some goals sooner than their competitors.
Do we think there is only one future? If not, why do we only plan for one?
Foresight catalyses thinking in alternative futures.
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FORESIGHT
Rules for talking about the FUTURE
Talk possibilities!
There are multiple futures.
Look back to see forward
There is no data about the future, only about the past.
Scan for signals of change, identify patterns, forget about predictions
The future is not predictable.
Do not just observe the future, but actively shape it!
Our today actions can influence the tomorrow.
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Foresight work implies 3 time dimensions.
Look back to look forward
Winston Churchill believed that “the longer you can look back, the farther you can look forward.” In our desire to move full steam ahead, we sometimes forget to look back and understand the past. If we do not understand our past, we may become ignorant to many of the probabilities and possibilities presented to us. Exploring the facts and data of what has happened, looking at how things happened and the different experiences of that can be a source of rich learning and hindsight - which can consequently dramatically inform future plans. Taking time to look retrospectively can help us in recognize patterns and identify specific behaviours.
How did you behave in past crisis? Or in the face of past extreme events? What did you learn from that? It also helps a lot to reflect on how fast our behaviour and adoption pace has changed. When the iPad launched in 2010, people could not seem to figure out what it was for. Tech writers wondered why anyone would want a touchscreen-only computer with no ports. The name was mockingly compared to feminine hygiene products. Now there are millions of tablets sold, not only from Apple, but from many other providers. 10 years back for early adopters, now mainstream. Not to mention that there are times, like the Covid19 pandemic, which become catalyzers for even faster changes.
Organisations that value #FuturePreparedness are 33% more profitable than the average!
Corporate Foresight Benchmark, Aarhus BSS
