A city of the future, seen by people from the past (AI generated by author)
Humans are not good at predicting the future. It’s a funny thing, too, because inevitably, we’re the ones making it.
To be sure, a bunch of people imagined a bunch of things before tech caught up (I’m looking at you, Leonardo).
But when it comes to intentional predictions, we just suck.
We’re a bunch of doomers and naive idealists making speculations wilder than a teenager in love. And before we know it, the future is now, and it’s nothing like we had said it would be.
Predicting the future matters, though. Especially now.
It’s both an exercise in hope and a way to get ahead of potential catastrophes. In the age of AI, that’s precious.
So, I went on a journey to the past to understand how we can better predict the future.
20th-century scientists had high hopes for us. We were supposed to all live to 150 and have cured all diseases. Or at least, you know, the common cold.
Except we didn’t.
We’re not flying in steam engines and taking video calls in street phone booths. Hell, we’re not even colonising the Moon.
There’s a bit of truth in each of those. But it’s not quite what ended up happening.
Why? Because we failed to consider these factors.
We imagined future technologies with the technologies of today
We predicted horseless carriages, wireless phones…, and machines based on the ones we knew.
Like this very productive 2000 gentleman, imagined in 1910 :
A 2000 French gentleman, dictating his letters to a machine (1910 postcard) — Public Domain. Actually, this full series of postcards is an excellent example.
We’re suffering from a form of technological myopia. We can’t see clearly what the world will be like. At best, we interpret the blurry shapes through the ones we know.