As we look ahead to 2025, the world remains unpredictable and fraught with challenges. While we can’t predict the future with certainty, analyzing current trends can provide insight into what the incoming administration’s top national security priorities might be.
What will emerge as the most pressing issues for U.S. national security in 2025? NSI experts weigh in with their perspectives on the key challenges and opportunities likely to define the year ahead.
The worldwide threat landscape is evolving at breakneck speed. In 2025, organizations based in the United States and among our global security partners face a new era where cyberattacks, physical sabotage, and geopolitical tensions are colliding, creating unprecedented security challenges. This “New Cold War” isn’t fought with missiles, aircraft carriers, and large troop movements but with hybrid campaigns targeting critical infrastructure, supply chains, and trust itself. Rogue states like Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea are leading this charge into the shadows of the gray zone, often placing private companies on the front lines.There are five transformative trends reshaping for proactive intelligence strategies. First, the convergence of cyber and physical threats blurs traditional boundaries, forcing business organizations and others to integrate their defenses in a whole of society effort. Next, infostealers — malware designed to harvest credentials — are fueling larger cyber-attacks, while artificial intelligence is simultaneously a weapon for adversaries and a shield for defenders. Open-source intelligence, or OSINT, is becoming vital as attackers exploit public data and threat groups like terrorists and criminals increasingly use encrypted messaging platforms. Finally, the evolution of extortion tactics demands resilience strategies that anticipate layered, ecosystem-wide disruptions. All organizations must adapt quickly, and government leaders must shift from reactive to proactive security, embedding continuity plans and rehearsing for complex attack scenarios. Resilience in the face of rising global security risk and adversity will define successful organizations.” In this rapidly shifting landscape, intelligence isn’t just a resource — it’s a lifeline.
Andrew Borene, NSI Senior Fellow
China and Russia pose extraordinary threats to U.S. national security.The most pressing priority for Donald Trump’s second administration is to craft a grand strategy which recognizes these threats, calibrate it to the means at hand, and communicate and implement it in a sober, methodical, and sustained fashion.
That’s not easy in any case, and likely to be doubly difficult in a second Trump term.
But there is reason to be optimistic.
Setting aside random presidential musings, Tweets, and off-the-cuff assertions (admittedly a tall order), the first Trump term developed and implemented a national security strategy which was a considerable improvement over what came before. Among other elements, it was remarkable in its rejection of the “responsible stakeholder” approach to China — the bipartisan, decades-long belief that the PRC’s global economic and diplomatic engagement would temper its authoritarian and expansionist proclivities. The Biden administration continued the approach which saw China as an increasingly powerful potential foe. This was sparked in part by the extraordinary growth in the number and capabilities of Chinese nuclear arms which might soon be able to destroy a significant portion of the American arsenal in a surprise first strike, survive retaliation from remaining U.S. weapons, and still threaten U.S. cities. If realized, this capability would almost certainly give China a freer hand because it would force U.S. leaders to react very cautiously (if at all) in response to Chinese military moves against Taiwan or elsewhere.
Recognizing Russia’s designs on Europe, Trump 45 took steps to bolster security in Ukraine. His forthcoming approach is less certain, but so is the prospect (however desirable) of successfully repelling Russia, given Vladamir Putin’s willingness to sustain extraordinary losses and allocate tremendous resources to the fight. Regardless, continuing to advance the longstanding lament of U.S. leaders from both parties that other NATO members do not contribute enough to their defense and recognizing limits to U.S. power neither signals American “isolationism” nor sympathy to Russia’s geopolitical goals.
Christopher Bright, NSI Fellow
The Trump administration faces a time of profound international instability. As such, clear grand strategy for vectoring the immense national defense, intelligence, and security functions of the American state is critical for the incoming administration.This means the development of a coherent national defense strategy for the military, and a clear national security strategy which focuses American security capabilities for long-term competition and assurance of the democratic institutions and ideals. The rules-based order led by the United States is the international status-quo, whereas authoritarian actors are the change agents; in this paradigm, the status quo is inherently disadvantaged. This is owed to the short-term mindedness of the last two decades of strategy development.
Too often, American policy has shaped defense and security strategies for proximal, short-term considerations, whereas the competition — Beijing, Moscow, Tehran and Pyongyang — see the security paradigm through generational and societal optics. Short-term crisis of previous administrations — the rise of anti-state terrorism, the COVID pandemic, or the sudden reversion to great power competition — informed and shaped reactionary grand strategies, which further reflect the challenge of determining long-term strategy and policy by liberal democracies.
As such, the Trump administration’s priority must be shaping its defense and security policies with a long-term vision in mind. This strategy construct must include building cohesion and interoperability with allies and partners and avoiding strategic isolationism, rebuilding American public faith in the military, facilitating cooperation with allies and potential partners abroad, shaping the defense and intelligence services for long-term competition, and prioritizing innovation to ensure a technological and societal edge in strategic competition.
Ethan Brown, NSI Visiting Fellow
A major issue facing companies and the government will be cyber deterrence and how to best protect critical infrastructure: whether that be regulatory mandates and checklists that accomplish little but make some people feel better, or by the government making our adversaries think twice before infiltrating our networks and attacking our economy.The past 4 years have seen a proliferation of government regulations of dubious value, but which are costly. This has been accompanied by the creation of multiple boards, frameworks, councils and other work streams that take resources but are of questionable efficacy and have not been blessed by Congress. The new administration has an opportunity to revisit many aspects of the cyber-regulatory state and chart a more effective path that avoids punishing U.S. companies that are victims and instead raised the pain felt by our adversaries.
Megan Brown, NSI CTC Senior Fellow
The new Administration will face numerous significant National Security threats facing the United States. These are U.S. — PRC competition; securing the United States Southern; the threats from Russia, including increased threats of hybrid warfare against NATO Allies and U.S.; the Iranian regime’s desire to develop a nuclear; threats posed by the DPRK; growing cyber threats, supply chain threats and threats to America’s Critical Infrastructure the negative impact polarization of U.S.; and, the undermining impact perceived politicization within the Federal Government is having on our National Security Establishment. Yet the most pressing priority for the new Administration will be reforming the current National Security apparatus.The federal bureaucracy, including key elements of the National Security apparatus, have become overly bureaucratic, suffer from low morale among many members of the workforce and have lost mission focus. The Administration will need to find a careful balance between reducing the bureaucracy, refocusing the National Security community on mission instead of non-mission related issues, and identifying the right leaders who have both the experience and personalities needed to inspire and lead in extremely challenging times. The Administration will need to accomplish these objectives quickly, while avoiding politization or weaponization of the Federal bureaucracy for partisan political objectives. Much needed reforms must take place in the National Security community while the U.S. will need to keep its eye on existing threats and remain ready to respond effectively to new emerging threats, which will prove challenging, but critical.
Glenn Corn, NSI Visiting Fellow
The most pressing challenge confronting the incoming administration will be ensuring that the United States keeps a global perspective on foreign policy. In 2025, the U.S. will be faced with both challenges and opportunities ranging from Ukraine to China to Latin America. Yet, American politics, media, and public discourse are increasingly trapped in a Middle Eastern gravity well, focused especially on Israel, Iran and Saudi Arabia.There are so many places in the world where the U.S. can create positive change that we really need to think through our current mono-regional focus. Is it in American or global interest to have one region, and especially three countries, sucking up so much of our foreign policy time, resources, and bandwidth? Is it worth giving so much attention and support to a Netanyahu government that seems resolved to pursue policies which will undermine Israel’s long-term security, democracy, and rule of law? Is the problematic Kingdom of Saudi Arabia worth so much support at a time when both American fossil fuel and renewables sectors appear poised for explosive growth?
Both of these bilateral relationships exact a heavy toll on America’s capacity to utilize soft power. An increasing number of credible IGOs and traditional American allies characterize the current Israeli government’s policy toward Gaza as genocide and many more recognize widespread human rights abuses and war crimes. As much as we hear about the reforms of MBS, Saudi Arabia remains a theocracy with an abysmal human rights record. With Iran we have no option but to negotiate to avoid another war in the region. Our uncritical support for Israel significantly undermines America’s ability to claim to be a global champion for peace, democracy, and human rights.
Of course, I should also add that I have significant doubts about the incoming administration’s ability to respond to this challenge, or even recognize that it is a challenge.
Sada Cumber, NSI Advisory Board Member
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is one of several pressing priorities for U.S. national security facing the incoming administration. AI is a critical issue for both government and industry now and well into and possibly beyond this decade. Here are a few reasons that I’ve outlined below. The short list below is not all encompassing due to the rapid changes in evolving technologies.Workforce Competencies: Development and implementation of AI strategies for the older workforce as well as the new and emerging workforces require early intervention and engagement at all levels of the echelon to ensure workers are informed and well-trained regarding AI plans and strategies. Workers need to know what, how to, shortfalls and benefits of AI based on mission requirements.
Cyber-Security Stumbling Blocks: The stumbling blocks with AI regarding cyber-security include a lack of transparency and the ability to explain AI parameters in clear and comprehensible terms. Other issues include bias and potential discrimination. If not planned well, with continuous testing and human oversight, AI opens itself up to nefarious attacks that could adversely impact government, industry, academia, and the average citizen. Equally important, AI’s cost is exorbitant, and privacy is a concern.
Understanding Big Data: For employees to understand the salient parameters of AI technology and be able to detect threats, predict pitfalls, and respond in credible ways to prevent, to detect, and prevent cyber threats, the use of large volumes of big data is paramount in training via machine learning. I question the current infrastructure protocols in many government and industry organizations who may not have the depth of expertise, adequate personnel, and leadership to take on the big data issues. Those issues include, but are not limited to, privacy, misinformation and security procedures to ensure smooth and credible operations to protect networks and prevent intrusions.
Dr. Lenora Peters Gant, NSI Advisory Board Member
The Trump administration faces a closing window of opportunity to drive systemic changes in the Euro-Atlantic defense and security architecture. This is divisible into three categories. First, the administration with Lt Gen Keith Kellogg as its special envoy to Russia and Ukraine, must craft a path for a sustainable cessation of hostilities against Ukraine (avoiding the failures of Minsk One and Two).This must carry with it credible consequences for Russian intransigence and transgressions, and bi- and multi-lateral security guarantees for Kyiv that stop short of NATO membership. A bad deal is worse than no deal and the administration must also prepare for the possibility that the war could well continue beyond the White House’s ambitions.
Second, the administration under Ambassador to the European Union Warren Stephens and Ambassador to NATO Matt Whitaker, needs to ensure that Europe takes the leads on reconstructing Ukraine’s infrastructure (estimated at nearly $500 billion), addressing the substantial humanitarian costs (over 400,000 casualties), and rehabilitating the national economy. The United States cannot and will not do this alone — politically or financially — though it need not do so. It is a matter of seizing available continental will and using the targeted confiscation of Russian assets (e.g. interest) and national resources, to do so.
Finally, NATO member-states have, finally, recognized the need to invest in their own defense beyond the minimum, relying on Washington to supplement the rest. Yet, as the urgency of the war against Ukraine ebbs and the perceived threat from Russia declines, domestic political issues risk undermining hard-won momentum. A credible deterrent is pressingly needed today in the form of force generation and defense industrial base mobilization.
A secure and defendable Ukraine is a prerequisite for European stability, and European stability (and greater continental self-reliance for defense) is necessary for American prosperity and strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific.
Joshua Huminski, NSI Senior Fellow
A 21st Century Sputnik Moment — In 2017, China achieved a groundbreaking technological milestone with the launch of the Micius satellite, which demonstrated the world’s first instance of space-to-ground quantum communication.The laws of physics make a quantum communication network impossible to hack, allowing its users to communicate securely at an unimaginable level.
Even with our advanced national security capabilities, countering such attacks would be impossible. Photon-based quantum keys ensure that any unauthorized interception attempt immediately destroys the message.
Since we lack this capability, adversaries could orchestrate untraceable and undetectable gray zone warfare and operate without fear of reprisals. This could include:
- Distort financial markets through coordinated short selling.
- Disrupt all bank transfers by turning off the SWIFT network
- Turn off cell networks and create rolling blackouts
- Flood the airwaves with propaganda that plays into conspiracy theories that our government may be behind these attacks.
We have yet to match this seven-year-old achievement, and China has continued to extend its almost decade-long lead in quantum communication.
China will likely achieve another quantum breakthrough in 2025: the world’s first multi-satellite quantum communication network. This groundbreaking advancement would establish a continuous, unhackable, and undetectable global communication network, providing an unparalleled and unmatched security advantage on the world stage.
Tanveer Kathawalla, NSI Visiting Fellow
I think the most pressing priority for the incoming administration will be to reassert American leadership in the world and to advance America’s interests in the Middle East, Asia and Eastern Europe.In the Middle East, we have largely stood by as a casual observer in the Israel/Hamas war, Israel/Hezbollah conflict, allowed the Houthis to run roughshod over the Red Sea, where $1 trillion of commercial shipping takes place, and watched the fall of Bashar al Assad in Syria and are hoping for the best on future governance in Damascus. Thankfully, Israel has led the way to severely degrade Iran’s capacity to do further damage on each of these fronts, which has helped serve America’s interests.
In Asia, the last Administration kept many of the same policies the Trump Administration put in place to restrict China’s access to key Western technologies but returned to more of engagement for the sake of engagement policy. We must return to a policy of deterrence with China and look for areas of engagement that serve U.S. interests, while further limiting China’s access to technologies that threaten America’s military strength. North Korea also resumed long-range missile tests, which will require renewed deterrence there as well. U.S. leaders were also caught flat-footed with South Korea’s recent political turmoil, undermining our ability to effectively deal with North Korea.
In Eastern Europe, the U.S. has long supported a policy that gives Ukraine just enough military equipment, intelligence support and know-how to prevent it from losing a war to Russia, but not enough to win. That calculous should change, or at least we should push for a responsible conclusion to the conflict that promotes America’s and NATO’s interests, while protecting Ukraine’s hard-fought sovereignty.
Andy Keiser, NSI Senior Fellow
The most important reset for 2025 should be the restoration of Clean Networks. This initiative began in the first Trump administration and was led by Ambassador Keith Krach, the Under Secretary of State for Economic Growth, Energy, and the Environment. It brought together nations and companies representing more than half of the world’s gross domestic product (GDP) and promised a network experience built on trust with components from providers from democratic countries.The Biden Administration scrapped Clean Networks in favor of “vendor diversity,” the value proposition was the so-called OpenRAN (radio access network). OpenRAN has failed as a commercial and security solution. Its interoperable interfaces and software are not 1:1 substitutes for classic network technologies, and the effort includes participation of Chinese government companies, making it insecure.
Trump will likely restore Clean Networks and promote a Trusted Vendors program around the world. Without a sustained State Department effort, many of the countries and companies which promised a Clean and Trusted Network experience did not follow through. This is one priority which the new Administration must pick up, a no-brainer for security in an unstable world. Clean Networks is consistent with the European Union’s 5G toolbox, so the US and Europe can build on one important area with natural alignment right out of the gate.
A related issue for security is free speech, something that China wants to quell particularly when national security scholars describe China’s risky tech and tactics. Chinese government actors and affiliates wage lawfare against these critics who dare to call out illicit practices of China’s state-owned and affiliated firms. NSI’s Jamal Jaffer has been on the forefront to advocate for this fundamental human right and against China’s campaign of global repression.
Roslyn Layton, NSI Fellow
The top national security priority should be shaping and winning the Fourth Industrial Revolution and the technologies underpinning it. We are at a generational, era-defining tipping point in technological disruption, one which will tilt the advantage toward authoritarian adversaries absent U.S. leadership. The entire U.S. national security community must collectively shape the guardrails and norms around all facets of emerging tech — from AI to quantum to cyber — or else yield that power to the growing alliance among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea.All aspects of U.S. national security are directly linked to the ongoing technological disruption, as these new technologies have shifted prior definitions of power, are providing asymmetric advantages, and will be a determining factor in global economic competitiveness as well as military capacity. Shaping the vision and establishing the principals of this era must be engrained from strategic to tactical levels, across public and private sectors, and throughout people, processes, and technologies.
A technological disruption of this magnitude requires equivalent disruptions elsewhere. From supply chain security to workforce skillsets and hiring practices to AI governance, each of these diverse areas must be aligned and have the common goal of shaping the technological revolution to favor U.S. national security and democracy. Fostering a common goal of this magnitude is essential in addressing the ever-increasing range of threats. Unless the U.S. takes the leadership reigns on both innovation and the norms and governance surrounding the emerging technologies, adversaries will fill the leadership vacuum and the U.S. will simply muddle along, ill-prepared for this new era of national security and re-globalization that is already here.
Andrea Little Limbago, NSI CTC Senior Fellow
In Scott Westerfeld’s dystopian novel “The Uglies,” the world was divided into the Pretties and the Uglies. In the world of national security, Syria is an Ugly.Power abhors an ugly vacuum, and Syria is one of the largest vacuums on the planet. Chaos within its borders. Instability without in an area already rattling. And none of the potential futures look good for any stability or for the welfare of the Syrian people.
Inside the Ugly
Internally, if the current government coalition stands, we’ll have a self-proclaimed reformed Sunni ISIS government — in country one-fourth Shias, Christians, and Druze; never mind the Muslim Yazidi’s.
To put it mildly, the ISIS track record on human rights of anyone different is abysmal. Atrocities and internal battles with myriad groups are virtually guaranteed. And so are likely large scale refugee flows to surrounding countries.
The Ugly Next Door
As for their neighbors, Syria is the Ugly next door. The Erdogan’s Turkish government is already rumbling about protecting its interests militarily with a DMZ like “safe zone” along its border.
The wobbly governments of Iraq and Lebanon are keeping their eyes peeled on a possible regenerated ISIS 2.0 causing them internal problems and a potential large refugee influx
And last and certainly not least, Israel fresh from its experiences in Gaza is not going to tolerate any attacks on the Golan and Israel proper emanating from the new Syria.
Ugly and the Geo-Players
The humiliated Russians must figure out what is left of their Syrian commitment. They have lost a client state and the international prestige and geo-political position that went with it as a Middle East player.
And nor is Iran particularly crazy about a Syria that will not view the Teheran backed Hezbollah with unalloyed joy.
So, the new U.S. administration is likely to find out that America First is a better slogan than a policy.
Syria is a real Ugly.
Ronald Marks, NSI Visiting Fellow
The top U.S. national security priority needs to be Defense of Homeland. Every President’s security and defense strategies state “defense of the homeland” is the number one priority, but no Presidential budgets have reflected this. As a result, there are two areas where America’s principal adversaries, China and Russia, have an open door to impact the homeland — with both missile and cyber-attacks.Missile Defense: The U.S. can’t comprehensively track inbound ballistic, hypersonic or cruise missile threats, and they have no ability to defend more than a fraction of one percent of the homeland against cruise or hypersonic attacks at any one time. China and Russia are both aggressively designing and building weapon systems to exploit this exact vulnerability.
Cyber Defense: The defense of U.S. critical infrastructures in cyberspace is equally weak, with our military mobility infrastructures (rail, aviation and ports) and economic productivity (energy, financial services, manufacturing) unprotected against foreign cyber intrusion and disruption. The recent Volt Typhoon and Salt Typhoon penetrations demonstrate that China is willing to exploit these weaknesses as well.
This effort will require Resources. President Trump’s first term featured a significant effort to restore defense budgets after a decade of sharp decline. From 2009 to 2017 U.S. defense spending plunged from 4.5% of GDP to 3.1%, by 2021 President Trump had restored this to 3.4%. The four years of the Biden Administration have seen another relative decline with Defense spending falling back to 3.0% of GDP. If President Trump takes a measured, gradual approach he can boost this back to 3.5% by adding 0.1% a year, to include the FY 2025 budget still under review in Congress.
Mark Montgomery, NSI CTC Distinguished Fellow
In 2025, the U.S. will face a dynamic and multi-tiered national security landscape dominated by relentless threats from China and other adversaries. These actors will leverage advanced technologies, offensive cybersecurity tactics, and influence campaigns to challenge U.S. global leadership. The U.S. is not keeping pace with China’s long-term strategic investments in technology and innovation.To navigate this complex scenario, the U.S. must prioritize rapid threat assessment and achieve decision-advantage at speed and scale. This approach demands aggressive investment in foundational enabling capabilities such as advanced data management, AI development and testing, and secure model deployment. Resilient cybersecurity — both offensive and defensive — must be integrated into all capabilities and across all sectors from the outset.
Collaboration is key. A “whole-of-nation” approach, uniting government, industry, academia, and research institutions is essential to strengthen the U.S. innovation ecosystem and safeguard critical infrastructure. Public-private partnerships must drive transformative advancements while addressing emerging and persistent threats.
Equally critical is investing in talent. To remain competitive the U.S. must prioritize upskilling its workforce to harness evolving technologies and enable effective human-machine teaming. Simultaneously, recruiting the next generation workforce and developing leaders across sectors is essential. Building a robust STEM talent pipeline begins with middle and high school education, emphasizing critical thinking and digital, data and AI literacy. Universities and training programs must massively scale efforts to prepare new and returning students for a rapidly evolving global environment.
By aligning innovation, collaboration, and talent development, the U.S. can achieve and maintain strategic advantage and safeguard its interests at home and around the world.
Nancy Morgan, NSI CTC Visiting Fellow
Expansion of terrorism by extremist both foreign and domestic represents the most pressing priority for national security. Not only have we recently seen domestic terrorist events at the start of the new year but given the rhetoric and extreme perspectives related to the US, we should expect several attacks to occur on our soil and against our allies.This threat will largely be driven by global economic instability, resulting in dissatisfaction within the population of those most affected. This financial instability will make it easier for violent extremist to recruit proxies, as well as align themselves with other extremists groups who share a belief of inequities or religious and ethnic persecution.
Economic troubles, fueled by trade conflicts, will further drive the creation of a crisis of frustration and hopelessness. The resulting outcome being a sense of rage and a desire for the less fortunate to align with those foreign threats who look to damage the nation. We are already seeing collaboration and unification of otherwise independent or opposing forces, and an increased wealth disparity perception will only further speed up dangerous alliances.
The rise of anti-immigration and its adverse effects will amplify notions of persecution, fanning the fires of hopelessness and hatred through words and beliefs and creating a new pipeline of susceptible minds to align with our enemies.
These factors, combined with the growth of foreign and domestic nationalism, will further weaken the essential infrastructure that exists to contain radical players. The insular nature of nationalism will lead to a decrease in intelligence sharing, and support with allies aligning with more socially and geographically aligned partners. The resulting isolationism will further speed up international trade impediments, resulting in an acceleration of the aforementioned factors.
Leaders’ failure to shift the narrative and focus on genuine economic improvement, rather than perception management, while simultaneously fostering global hope, will lead to a national security disaster of epic proportions. America’s economic and military greatness came from its diversity of talent. We need to move back and embrace what strengthens us.
Harold Moss, NSI Fellow
The most immediate national security issues include several significant, long-term efforts by our nation’s adversaries, including:Addressing the foreign efforts to destabilize the U.S. through the combination of misinformation and the Opiates War. Foreign adversaries continue to reap the benefits of unwitting accomplices who readily (and sometimes eagerly) promote unsubstantiated rumors, whether for ratings or clickbait.
Reorienting sanctions policy will be a major issue because of the way in which it is tied to efforts to undermine the U.S. as a global currency. The combination of alternative payment systems and cryptocurrency has been used aggressively to set this process in motion.
Regaining energy independence, which also will help secure the U.S. against de-dollarization efforts. A primary de-dollarization target is aimed at removing the dollar as the standard in energy trading. If the de-dollarization efforts succeed, it would be a catastrophic development that could negatively impact the U.S. economy for decades.
Kenneth Nunnenkamp, NSI Visiting Fellow
The biggest challenge transcends national security and domestic policy: maintaining economic stability in a politically unstable world. Of course, there are several elements in-play to be able to achieve that.The Obama administration’s “pivot to Asia” was rightly maligned because it was too narrow and exclusive in scope (focused chiefly on the Pacific-facing portion of the world’s largest continent) and implied tradeoffs that didn’t match the reality of modern geopolitics. The first Trump administration took a broader view, making direct, public moves to stabilize and promote commerce in the westernmost region of the continent via the Abraham Accords, and maximizing pressure on the Iranian regime and its partners, while also elevating the global conversation concerning malign Chinese economic and military activities far beyond what previously had been done under any administration.
The second Trump administration comes to power as Syria has become an accidental fulcrum of global affairs adjacent to the already always-contentious broader Middle East. The Iranian regime is seriously hampered but will continue to struggle to assert itself against Turkish, Russian, and Saudi interests, and conditions in the Middle East may indeed get worse before they get better. Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords would further marginalize Iran and advance what will be a generation-long process of freeing the region from the grip of its own dogmatic and counterproductive demonization of its only democratic country. Continuing to aid Ukraine defeat the aggression of its larger former co-confederate remains a worthwhile investment, and hastening victory in that conflict will help to stabilize important energy and food trade while further undercutting Russia’s aggressive influence in BRICS and allowing our national security and foreign affairs agencies to focus on more appropriately modern challenges rather than the misbegotten delusions of grandeur of an autocratic Cold Warrior longing to reconstitute his Soviet Union.
Adam Pearlman, NSI Senior Fellow
The United States faces an unprecedented vulnerability in its dependency on China for critical materials and manufacturing capacity, particularly in sectors essential to its military-industrial base. This dependency jeopardizes the nation’s ability to project deterrence globally and sustain operations in the event of conflict. Rebuilding domestic industrial capacity is no longer a long-term objective; it is an immediate and existential priority.Over 90% of the world’s rare earth elements, indispensable for precision-guided munitions, fighter jets, and missile defense systems, are processed in China. The U.S. defense industry relies on China for 70% of its lithium-ion battery supply chain, crucial for emerging military technologies. Even more alarmingly, the U.S. imports 80% of its active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) from China, underscoring how deeply the reliance permeates critical infrastructure. Without access to these resources, the U.S. would struggle to maintain readiness, let alone scale up production for sustained conflict.
This vulnerability mirrors Europe’s dependence on U.S. industrial capacity during World War I and II, with one critical difference: China, not the United States, holds the leverage. If China were to curtail exports of essential materials or technologies, the U.S. would face immediate and severe limitations in its ability to sustain a war effort. The reality is stark: without rapid reindustrialization, the U.S. risks being unable to wage war without Chinese cooperation.
The incoming administration must act decisively to rebuild the U.S. industrial base while avoiding actions that escalate tensions with China. This means developing market mechanisms to incentivize private investment in critical sectors, forging alliances to diversify supply chains, and implementing targeted tariffs or trade policies to level the playing field. Without such measures, the U.S. risks losing its strategic autonomy and its ability to deter adversaries effectively, imperiling both national security and global stability.
Nicholaus Rohleder, NSI Fellow
An important priority of the incoming Trump administration will be restoring deterrence in American foreign policy. Doing so will not be easy. The erosion of deterrence has impacted a wide array of national security threats, including Russia, China, Iran, and such Iranian proxies as the Houthis. The absence of a sense of a robust response policy has also encouraged illegal immigration and foreign partners’ decisions to expand trade with China in areas that touch national security. Reversing this erosion of our global influence will require more than words alone. The Trump administration should anticipate adversaries testing its willingness to live up to campaign rhetoric. Genuine economic pressure and even tailored and limited military action may be required. The incoming administration should prepare for this inevitable test with clear red lines that reflect our national interests and values, and an insistence that partners who profess to share our concerns and values also share the burden of stopping aggression. Adversaries worldwide will watch the results of our management of this challenge and plan their strategies accordingly. Restoring a sense of deterrence by the U.S. and its partners will reduce aggression and encourage aggressors to look to diplomacy. More broadly, reducing the number of crises will also allow more focus and resources to be applied to dealing with China and national priorities.
Norman Roule, NSI Fellow
Winning the AI race should be a critical priority for the incoming Trump administration as it underpins national security, economic dominance, and global influence. As artificial intelligence increasingly shapes military capabilities, economic systems, and global governance, the United States must remain at the forefront to ensure its strategic interests are protected. China has rapidly emerged as the primary competitor in AI, investing heavily in research, development, and integration of AI across military and civilian sectors.Beijing’s ambitions to become the global leader in AI by 2030 pose a direct challenge to U.S. dominance, necessitating urgent and coordinated action.
To maintain leadership, the U.S. must protect the innovation ecosystem and drive innovation by not reinventing the wheel when it comes to AI regulation and encouraging and strengthening public-private partnerships between AI companies and government agencies. By incentivizing collaboration, the government can leverage the expertise and agility of the private sector while directing investments toward national priorities such as energy infrastructure, cybersecurity, and defense.
Equally important is the establishment of international standards and norms for AI development and deployment. The incoming Administration has an opportunity to significantly invest in the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) and empower the agency. By leading in this arena, the U.S. can ensure that AI systems reflect democratic values and ethical principles, countering efforts by authoritarian regimes to impose their own frameworks. This strategy not only safeguards U.S. interests and favors technology developed in the U.S., but also ensures a rules-based global order.
Winning the AI race is not just a technological challenge; it is a fundamental issue of maintaining national security and global leadership in the 21st century.
Tony Samp, NSI CTC Visiting Fellow
The Trump administration must signal the world’s tyrants he intends to be a “Winston Churchill,” not a Neville Chamberlain. If he demonstrates he is serious about seeking peace through strength and stands up to aggression, he may well go down in history as a great world leader. If he fails, he may set the stage for a nuclear World War III.President Trump needs to understand that the situation in Ukraine is not a “dispute” needing compromise and a “negotiated” solution, but a blatant act of international aggression in violation of the most fundamental principles of international law. The Soviet Union joined with the world community in renouncing the use of force as an instrument of policy in the 1928 Kellogg-Briand Treaty, and ratified the 1945 UN Charter that in Article 1 commits each of its 193 members “to take effective collective measures for the prevention and removal of threats to the peace, and for the suppression of acts of aggression . . . .” At the 1945 London Conference that set the rules for the Nuremberg prosecution of Nazi war criminals, the Soviet Union took the lead in insisting that the crime of “aggressive war” be listed first. Violators were hanged.
If the new Administration undermines NATO or Ukraine — or allows Putin to benefit in any way from his aggression — it may well undermine the global Rule of Law and incentivize major aggression from Beijing and Pyongyang to Tehran. No one wants a nuclear war, but Iran’s continued direct (and indirect) aggression against Israel, and North Korea’s deploying thousands of troops to join Putin’s aggression against Ukraine, justify the use of military force against Iran and North Korea in “collective self-defense” under Article 51 of the UN Charter.
Putin will get the message.
Dr. Robert Turner, NSI Senior Fellow
We could talk TikTok, specific countries causing a stir, or bad actors crossing into the U.S. — there’s no shortage of threats to keep national security experts awake at night. But as the incoming administration takes office in 2025, perhaps the most critical priority will be ensuring our own house is in order. Safeguarding constitutional governance and maintaining the balance of power among the branches of government aren’t just abstract ideals; they’re essential to meeting any challenge.Recent debates have highlighted how unchecked issues could erode military readiness, disrupt international alliances, and weaken the balance of powers central to American governance.
A key concern is the potential use of executive authority to bypass Congress in national security matters. Moves like withholding appropriated funds (a.k.a. Impoundment) or redirecting defense resources without approval raise serious constitutional questions. Beyond legality, these actions could jeopardize defense readiness by diverting critical resources, leaving the U.S. vulnerable to emerging threats.
And let’s talk about funding the government — or not. Failing to pass a budget on time, or worse, triggering a shutdown, doesn’t just waste taxpayer money — it’s an abdication of responsibility. National security doesn’t wait for Congress to catch up.
Another pressing issue is the erosion of checks and balances in appointing national security leaders. Bypassing Senate confirmation risks concentrating authority in the executive branch and over politicizing key roles.
Internationally, alliances like NATO require steady stewardship. Reckless changes to commitments could create constitutional challenges and damage U.S. credibility.
National security in 2025 will depend not just on addressing external threats but on ensuring democratic principles and steady governance guide our response.
Dan Wagner, NSI Fellow
In 2025, the most pressing U.S. national security priority will be addressing strategic competition with China, particularly in technology, military posturing, and economic influence. This challenge intersects with other critical issues, including Russia’s assertiveness, evolving cyber threats, and climate-induced instability, demanding a comprehensive, forward-looking approach.The U.S.-China relationship has shifted to intense rivalry. China’s rapid advancements in artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and NextG technology have positioned it as a formidable technological competitor. Leadership in semiconductors and other critical technologies will remain vital for military superiority and economic resilience. China’s assertive military actions in the Indo-Pacific, such as militarizing the South China Sea and pressuring Taiwan, further threaten regional stability. The U.S. must recalibrate its Indo-Pacific posture, strengthen alliances like AUKUS and the Quad, and support Taiwan’s self-defense.
Simultaneously, Russia’s aggression, highlighted by the ongoing war in Ukraine, demands sustained U.S. military and economic support for Kyiv and a united NATO. Hybrid threats like cyberattacks and disinformation targeting democracies will require robust countermeasures.
Cybersecurity will remain paramount as ransomware, espionage, and disruptions to critical infrastructure grow more sophisticated. Emerging AI-driven threats and the weaponization of space necessitate fortifying digital and satellite systems to ensure resilience.
Climate events will continue to amplify global instability through resource scarcity and migration. Addressing these effects will require integrating national security strategies and enhancing disaster response capabilities domestically. Most importantly, the U.S. and its citizens must ensure that Keelin always has a smile on her face.
Jeffrey Wells, NSI CTC Fellow
There are many national security issues facing the USA in 2025, but disinformation seems to head the list because there are so many sources, so many different motivations, and so many disparate and disruptive impacts; dealing with it all is classic whack-a-mole.External and domestic actors can use disinformation to undermine public trust and inflame social divisions. The advent of inexpensive and powerful AI enables more sophisticated uses of social media via fabricated content and high-velocity distribution. Similarly, deepfakes that impersonate leaders and influencers can disrupt business, public health, military operations, or critical infrastructure. Adversaries can use disinformation to generate false military, global health, or supply chain narratives that create panic or sow discord internally or with allies.
Disinformation can be leveraged with cyber-attacks to falsely report on natural disasters, infrastructure disruption, banking failures, or industrial accidents in such a way that capabilities and the social fabrics are seriously degraded. Attacking and compromising authoritative sources of information while disinformation is rapidly spread through other channels could be devastating.
The prevalence of encrypted messaging applications and private networks makes it challenging to detect and identify disinformation actors, and a highly decentralized attack program would complicate any effective response. The decentralized nature of most social media platforms exacerbates the response problem.
In 2025, for example a massive disinformation campaign as described above could be deployed in conjunction with an invasion of a US ally to create distracting economic and social chaos that undermines an effective and/or unified response.
Joseph Williams, NSI CTC Visiting Fellow
