Learning the Future

This article is a documentation of my decades-long learning journey toward understanding the concept of “the future of the future is the present,” and how I apply it as future thinking in my course of work. There are three main areas within this mental model, which I will be covering, that of the Extension of Man, “Jobs to be Done,” and Business Model 2.0 by Tetsuro Kondo.

Extension of Man

I first encountered the works of Marshall McLuhan 20 years ago, and I have been a great fan of his ever since. “Extension of Men” is one of his notions that has stuck with me for quite some time and has helped me to ponder and be curious about mediums and how they work.

What Marshall McLuhan saw is that all media and technology are the extension of human faculties, either physical or psychic.

“The wheel is an extension of the foot, as it ‘extends’ the capacity for human travel by enabling the covering of distances beyond what is capable by mere human locomotion. Clothing and housing are extensions of the skin and body, increasing capabilities for shelter and protection. The technology of written language is understood as an extension of the eye, as it enables a ‘seeing’ of things not actually present but represented in the language.” — Marshall McLuhan

What this means is that technology extends our human capability, which in turn changes our perceptions and culture. However, these changes may not always have a positive impact and can — quite often — lead to negative ones. For example, as shown in the next image, the extension leads to the amputation of a human ability.

These extension-related amputations can be of an ability but could also be related to culture or well-being.

Take the invention of the smartphone. It is obvious how it has changed lifestyles and extended our capabilities. For instance, it has extended our ability to connect with others at any time we want. It has extended our ability to get information or services with a tap of a finger. It has also extended our ability to store information (e.g., phone numbers) and memories (e.g., photos).

But what does it take away? What does it amputate? It takes away IRL (in real life) social time with friends and family. It takes a toll on our thinking, even while it is a means to help us make decisions and perform tasks. We become less engaged with our daily life and anxiety can build up as a result. These are amputations.

When you invent the ship, you also invent the shipwreck; when you invent the plane you also invent the plane crash; and when you invent electricity, you invent electrocution… Every technology carries its own negativity, which is invented at the same time as technical progress. — Paul Virilio

When there is an amputation, there is an opportunity to “cover” or “fill” this loophole. That is where mindfulness apps, Screen Time features, and meditation devices come in to rectify these amputations.

For every extension, there will be an amputation.

Whenever there is a novel invention or new technological feature, there will be further extensions, which in turn lead to a new set of amputations. And this goes round and round.

In my opinion, there is no perfect technological solution to a problem. We can only cover the flaws that are created by each new technical creation. However, what we can do is identify and be mindful of the problem that each technological invention will instigate and, hopefully, minimise the damages that it creates.

If you have read the Japanese comic Doraemon, you know the cute blue robot cat — which has all these futuristic gadgets from the future — gives the impression that the future is utopian. However, at the end of every short story, his futuristic gadgets always cause a new set of challenges after they have solved the initial problem.

Eventually, no technological invention holds a perfect answer to any given problem.

A decade ago, I was working as the interaction designer for an MP3 company, researching what the next big thing was. And Faith Popcorn, a futurist, was one of my regular reads. It was during this time that I began to see how the notion of extension and amputation could also be applied as a way to gain foresight of the future. Specifically, how things influence one another within a system and how the solutions of today could be impacting our future.

Fascinated and intrigued by learning how mediums work within this complicated environment, I felt like a fish finally understanding the presence of water.

Llike a fish finally understanding the presence of water.

However, this concept was still hazy for me back then, and my process of identifying the extension or amputation of a product was quite loosely framed.

It was while I was doing my studies at Hyper Island and with the introduction of the “Jobs to be Done” framework that I realized how these mediums or technologies could actually represent jobs that are designed for people. And how these jobs are broken down into functional aspects and emotional aspects that the new product is either extending or amputating. Stumbling upon the Jobs-to-be-done market discovery template further allowed me to connect to the next dot on how the identification of the amputation could lead to a new opportunity.

Amputation and JTBD

In a TED talk, Bill Gross explained that timing is one of the most important factors when determining if a business will be successful. He stated that Airbnb’s idea of renting out apartments to strangers was perfectly timed because everyone was looking to earn extra cash after the 2007–2009 recession. If you apply this idea to our current context, that is equivalent to Zoom’s rise in popularity over other competitors during the Covid-19 lockdown.

Therefore, the golden question that most entrepreneurs are asking is how to accurately forecast what will happen so that businesses can prepare for it.

In future thinking, there are three components that have a strong influence on the type of plausible future being explored — these are drivers, trends, and megatrends.

Within the realm of future-thinking theories for businesses, “The Jobs to be Done Data Model” by Alan Klement highlights pointers in the case studies he discusses, which provide interesting insights on how jobs evolve. Here are two concepts from him that stood out to me.

1. “Consumer[s] only had one of these Jobs at a time before moving onto the next.”
2. “When enough elements of demand come together, a Job to be Done is created. As long as the elements of demand are not diminished, consumers will begin searching for new ways to make progress, and if/when they find a way to make progress, they will switch to that new way.”

Alan Klement, in that same article, also highlighted that it is only when elements of demand come together that the Jobs to be Done (JTBD) will be created. The two parameters under the JTBD synthesis that struck a chord with me were Constraints and Catalysts. These can be compared to a chemical reaction in that — when the conditions are right — they will influence the speed of adoption. For example, while the constraints for a flying car to be commoditised for the masses faces a technological challenge (drivers), catalysts like the COVID-19 epidemic (megatrends) accelerate the adoption of contactless payment.

Amputation + JTBD = Probable Future?

If trends or drivers create new jobs and the new jobs lead to new trends, then is it possible that with each planned activity successfully achieved, we are able to move closer to a probable future? Can businesses design and plan an innovative path with a locked long-term vision? (I.e. Steve Jobs prediction of iPad.)

Business Model 2.0

This leads me to the next future-thinking framework by Tetsuro Kondo, which I came across in one of his books, Business Model 2.0. What intrigued me is his concept of the contrary business model, which forces one to think of a solution in a directly opposite manner.

Here is one of the examples that he has raised:

• Product/service: Umbrella
• Current solution: Require hands to use it, and one will still get wet
• Contrary solution: Hands-free and one does not get wet

The purpose of the umbrella is to shelter an individual from the rain. However, an umbrella may not be the best at doing this as one’s shoes or legs could still get wet. Raincoats might be a better solution, but nobody carries a raincoat around with them at all times. This product (the umbrella) does not solve all the problems that it is designed for, and it brings another set of problems, such as accessibility and effectiveness (amputation). So a contrary solution would be a hands-free umbrella with the ability to shelter one 100% from the rain. Sound like an impossible future? In the past, nobody thought an automatic folding laundry service was possible, but the launch of Laundroid opened us up to new possibilities.

Tetsuro Kondo is proposing that by having a contrary solution, the impact that the product or service could bring is increased. And this framework does not stop here. As mentioned in my article on extension and amputation, there is no perfect technological solution for a problem.

Therefore, because innovation is a continuous process, this process can lead to a probable future…

Planning the future

If you have tried pebble skipping, you probably know that one usually does not have specific idea of where the pebble will land. However, you might have a general idea of where the first skip will go and where the subsequent skip will land. This is similar to the concept of “Theory of Change,” which is a structured backcasting method for strategic planning, where a long-term future goal is identified with the necessary steps or activities to achieve the goal.

How planning for the future can be done in the context of product/service innovation

1. Identify a long-term future goal where the solution is contrary to the current product or services.
2. Identify current amputation and extension of the product.
3. Use JTBD to discover new potential markets.
4. Repeat point 2 until a long-term goal is achieved.

I hypothesize that with this exercise, small businesses or designers can discover new possibilities and navigate themselves to a probable future that they have envisioned. I am looking to test this concept out in the next couple of months through a small workshop, and from there, I hope I will be able to share more insights.

Why I am thinking of this now

In these uncertain times, I hear from many of my clients that small businesses are unsure of what the future might hold, so they are adopting a waiting-game approach in the hope that when things have settled down, the business will get back to normal.

I hope that with these future-planning exercises, and with a future map in hand, small business owners and entrepreneurs will be able to confidently face the future with optimism and open themselves up to the possibilities that are out there. And with that, their decision and actions can determine how the future turns out.

“Imagination is more important than knowledge. For knowledge is limited to all we know and understand, while imagination embraces the entire world, and all there ever will be to know and understand.” — Albert Einstein

What the future entails is determined by what decisions they are making presently, and as Marshall McLuhan has concluded, the new is always made up of the old. The future of the future is the present.

SuperCampus is a curious school in Asia.