Are We on the Brink of the First Climate War?

Climate change, geopolitics, and the fracturing Indus Waters Treaty

Ben Shread-Hewitt

6 min read

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3 days ago

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The Indus River, by Sundeep bhardwaj

The escalating tensions between Pakistan and India serve as a stark reminder that climate change is no longer a distant — it is now a force multiplier for geopolitical instability. As the climate crisis accelerates, so too does its capacity to deepen existing rivalries, strain fragile agreements, and inflame long-standing disputes.

In South Asia, the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) has long been a rare success story of transboundary cooperation between two nuclear-armed neighbours. However, as both climate pressures and political tensions mount, this once-resilient agreement is beginning to show signs of severe strain. The looming question is no longer just about water rights — it’s about whether climate change could be the catalyst for the world’s first true climate war.

The Climate Crisis Deepens Pakistan’s Vulnerabilities

Dried up Dam, Balochistan, Pakistan, by Yasir Dora

Pakistan finds itself at the epicentre of multiple overlapping crises. Climate change has emerged not only as an environmental challenge but as a threat to…