Illustration: Chen Xia/GT
Washington's newly introduced policies to restrict the export of chips and manufacturing equipment to China will require its allies, such as the Netherlands, to implement stricter export controls.
According to several media reports, the Dutch government plans to further limit exports from ASML to China by not renewing existing export licenses. The restrictions mainly involve maintenance and parts delivery for the second most modern generation of chip machines, specifically the top-tier deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography equipment.
This is a strategic move by Washington to further antagonize China and curb its development. If the Netherlands follows this strategy, it will exacerbate the widening rift in China-US and China-Netherlands relations, increasing global geopolitical instability.
The US is pressuring its allies to strongly sever ties with China's industrial and supply chains, once again putting the Dutch government and ASML, one of the world's most important producers of chip manufacturing equipment, in a dilemma. Amsterdam has not yet made a final decision, but it has indicated that it will take the economic interests of ASML into account.
ASML holds a significant position in the global semiconductor industry. Its advanced extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines, crucial for producing cutting-edge chips, are already not exported to China at the US' behest. With increased pressure from the US, the DUV equipment in China has become a target. This also indicates that China's chip and equipment manufacturing capabilities are rapidly improving, forcing Washington to take more extreme measures to curb Chinese chip production.
Countries like the Netherlands, Japan and South Korea face a difficult choice between economic interests and political pressure from US hegemony. If ASML loses the Chinese market, it will suffer significant economic losses. This loss could potentially lead to a decrease in ASML's global market share and a shift in the balance of power in the semiconductor industry.
Reducing ASML's presence in the Chinese market would also weaken its competitiveness in global research capabilities, potentially causing the Netherlands to lose its market-leading position in specific high-tech fields.
If the Dutch government made the decision to follow the US' order, it will severely affect China-Netherlands relations in multiple fields. China is unlikely to stand idly by. It is expected to take corresponding counter-measures, such as imposing trade restrictions or seeking alternative suppliers, and reevaluating its cooperation with the Netherlands in more global areas.
It should be noted that the US' move will not only affect ASML and the Netherlands, but also many companies and countries that hold significant positions in the current industrial chain, causing further turmoil in the global semiconductor market. The potential impact on the global semiconductor market also cannot be underestimated. The result is that the US will extract more benefits from its allies, making them pay for its containment of China. The US cannot and will not compensate for the losses incurred by its allies.
Therefore, the Dutch government and ASML need to reassess their cooperative relationship with China. Amsterdam is weighing the economic interests involved in ASML's decision to restrict exports to China. Such efforts to try to find a balance indicate that the US containment policy toward China has reached its limits, leading to more irreconcilable conflicts of interest in the future.
Although China lags behind the US in advanced chip technology, China's main advantage remains in manufacturing application products. Chinese chip manufacturers will continue to hold an important position in the worldwide semiconductor ecosystem. As China continues to expand its overseas market, it also strengthens China's fundamental "counter-containment" capabilities.
Faced with these challenges, China will double its efforts to fully resolve the technical issues of high-end chip production. For those companies that follow the US in containing China, it will be challenging to return once they lose the Chinese market.
