Which of the scenarios is deemed most likely by migration experts?
Experts disagree on which of the four scenarios is most likely to materialize in 2030. A future in which world regions grow economically more similar but countries act increasingly unilaterally (instead of using mechanisms of international cooperation) is considered the relatively most likely scenario. In contrast, a future in which world regions grow more economically similar while also increasing their international cooperation is considered least likely. If the four scenarios were equally likely to occur each would have a 25 per cent chance, as marked by the dotted line in the figure.
How will each scenario affect total immigration flows to the European Union in 2030?
Migration experts estimate that in the most likely scenario (Scenario 1), immigration flows to the European Union in 2030 will remain at similar levels compared to 2017. Overall, experts tend to associate a higher degree of international cooperation with higher levels of immigration. In contrast, unilateral politics are associated with lower levels of immigration. Compared to the average level of immigration recorded between 2008 and 2017, which was around 1.9 million immigrants annually, experts estimate an increase of 21 per cent in Scenario 1, 25 per cent in Scenario 3, 38 per cent in Scenario 2, and 44 per cent in Scenario 4.
