Raphael ThysThe New Energy Outlook presents BloombergNEF’s long-term energy and climate scenarios for the transition to a low-carbon economy. Anchored in real-world sector and country transitions, it provides an independent set of credible scenarios covering electricity, industry, buildings and transport, and the key drivers shaping these sectors until 2050.
The 2024 edition presents two detailed global and country-level energy and climate scenarios to support corporations, financial institutions and policymakers navigating the energy transition. Enter your details below to download the Executive Summary as well as the Public Benchmark Dataset.
BloombergNEF will publish updated sector and country reports based on the New Energy Outlook 2024.
NEO 2024 Executive Summary
A Time for Action
The window to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 is rapidly closing but there is still time for the world to get on track – if decisive action is taken now. Failure to do so risks putting even a 1.75C global warming target out of reach. Progress has been made. The energy transition has accelerated in recent years with the pace of clean technology deployment and capital investment surging to record levels. And while emissions remain stubbornly high despite that momentum, with an even faster ramp-up of everything from renewables to green fuels, BNEF sees carbon neutrality by mid-century as a tough but achievable stretch.
The halfway point has now been reached in a make-or-break decade. Aligning with a net-zero trajectory will require an immediate peaking of emissions and fossil-fuel use across the global energy system – spanning the power, transport, industrial and buildings sectors.
Energy-related emissions and net-zero carbon budget, Economic Transition Scenario and Net Zero Scenario
Source: BloombergNEF
A System Built Around Renewables
Cleaner power generation can drive the bulk of the aggressive emissions cuts needed this side of 2030, enabling more time to tackle ‘hard-to-abate’ areas like steelmaking and aviation, where cost-competitive low-carbon solutions have yet to scale. A net-zero pathway hinges on renewables capacity tripling between now and the end of the decade.
Regardless of whether the world heads for net zero or it ultimately proves a stretch too far, the era of fossil fuels’ dominance is coming to an end. Even if the transition is propelled by economics alone, with no further policy drivers to help, renewables could still cross a 50% share of electricity generation at the end of this decade.
Electricity generation by technology/fuel
Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Includes electricity generation for hydrogen production under the Net Zero scenario. ‘Other renewables’ includes all other non-combustible renewable energy, including hydro, bioenergy, geothermal and solar thermal. CCS is carbon capture and storage.
A Shift in Investment and Spending Priorities
None of this will be possible without accelerated spending. On the energy supply side, for every dollar that goes to fossil fuels, an average of $3 needs to be invested in low-carbon energy over the remainder of the decade – up from parity today. A fully decarbonized global energy system by 2050 could come with a $215 trillion price tag – not an insignificant amount, but only 19% more than in an economics-driven transition, where the Paris Agreement goals are missed and global warming reaches 2.6C.
Global energy investment and spending across 2024-2050, Economic Transition Scenario and Net Zero Scenario
Source: BloombergNEF. Note: ICE is internal combustion engine, EV is electric vehicles. The numbers above the bars indicate cumulative investment and spending figures from 2024 to 2050.
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Report authors
David Hostert
Head of Economics & Modeling, Lead author
Matthias Kimmel
Head of Energy Economics
Dr. Ian Berryman
Lead Energy Systems Modeler
Felicia Aminoff
Grids
Dr. Kwasi Ampofo
Metals
Dr. Julia Attwood
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Hugh Bromley
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Jenny Chase
Renewables
Albert Cheung
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Takehiro Kawahara
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Claudio Lubis
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Kostas Pegios
Modelling
Rodrigo Quintero
Energy Economics
Daisy Robinson
Renewable Fuels
Seohee Song
Energy Economics
Dr. Nikolas Soulopoulos
Commercial Transport
Martin Tengler
Hydrogen
Amar Vasdev
Energy Economics
With support from
Meredith Annex
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Tushna Antia
Australia
Adithya Bhashyam
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Yiran Bian
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Natalia Castilhos Rypl
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David Doherty
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Philip Geurts
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Lara Hayim
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Yuchen Huo
Metals
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Shantanu Jaiswal
India
David Kang
Japan
Nilushi Karunaratne
Editorial
Isshu Kikuma
Japan
Nannan Kou
China
Hongyan Li
Editorial
Sofia Maia
Energy Transitions
Fauziah Marzuki
Gas
Colin McKerracher
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Oliver Metcalfe
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Tara Narayanan
US
Vinicius Nunes
Latin America
Rose Oates
Renewable Fuels
Sofia Perelli-Rocco
Heat Pumps
Hang Phan
Vietnam
Isabella Philip
Marketing
Leonard Quong
Australia
Abhishek Rohatgi
Gas
Dr. Tom Rowlands-Rees
Americas
Sanjeet Sanghera
Grids
Kesavarthiniy Savarimuthu
Europe
Kamala Schelling
Editorial
Yayoi Sekine
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Ashish Sethia
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Siddarth Shetty
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Sahaj Sood
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Analeigh Suh
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Allen Tom Abraham
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