Photo by Ross Parmly on Unsplash
Aviation needs to change before climate policies crack down.
Modern aeroplanes are remarkable. For only a few hundred dollars you can fly at over 500 mph and land halfway across the globe in less than 24 hours. But they have a glaring problem. They are one of our worst polluters. As we edge closer and closer to climate catastrophe, pressure is mounting on the aviation industry to adapt, or die. However, an unlikely saviour is at hand, an A.I that could revolutionise aerospace. But is it enough?
Before we dive into this incredible A.I let’s first understand just how horrific aeroplane emissions are. You may be surprised.
Let’s take a typical long-haul flight of London to LA. This eleven and a half hour flight costs only £460. Yet the carbon footprint of a single passenger is 1,200 kg (according to google flight). That means the flight of 380 passengers has a total carbon footprint of 456,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide! This includes the carbon footprint of support vehicles, fuel delivery, etc. But it means this single flight emits as much carbon dioxide as driving a VW Golf 1.4 TSI for over 2 million miles, and that is only for a one-way flight.
Photo by Julian Hochgesang on Unsplash
These insane emission levels is why aviation accounts for 2% of global emissions despite being a relatively small industry. This is why governments are putting pressure on aviation to change its ways.
So how can A.I help? They can make aeroplanes much more efficient.
Aeroplanes burn tonnes of fuel during takeoff, climbing and maintaining cruise speed against headwinds. A.I can optimise these situations giving the captain the most fuel-efficient routes (including altitude). But how does this work?
Take climbing, for example, where the plane goes from takeoff to cruising altitude. In this situation going against a headwind is more fuel-efficient as the wings produce more lift. So it may be worth climbing in a different direction to where the plane is going. However, you need to ensure that the fuel savings of climbing against the wind are more than the extra fuel used to make the detour.
Different aspect of flight use more fuel — Photo by Andrew Palmer on Unsplash
Likewise, cruising is more efficient with a tailwind. As there are plenty of high altitude air currents, it may be more fuel-efficient to climb higher into a faster tailwind. But, once again, you need to ensure that the fuel saved from the tailwind is more than the extra fuel used to climb higher.
To calculate the ideal solution is incredibly tricky. Not only do you need accurate weather predictions but you also need to take into account hundreds of parameters about the plane, such as weight change from fuel usage, changes in aerodynamic drag and accurate engine telemetry. This vast array of variables means that simple mathematical formula is impossible to create.
However, A.I can use past flight data, current flight telemetry and accurate weather models to plot the ideal flight path, making the flight significantly more efficient.
This A.I is already being trialled and trained for optimum performance. The program is still in early development, but the creators reckon it could save 5 million tonnes of carbon dioxide each year if used industry-wide.
Compared to aviation’s yearly 700 million tonne carbon footprint, this is a minor improvement, but an important one because it opens up other possibilities.
Oil refinery — Photo by Maksym Kaharlytskyi on Unsplash
Aviation is moving away from fossil fuels and towards carbon-neutral fuels. In theory, these synthetic fuels and biofuels are great! Aeroplanes can run with no net gain in carbon emissions without replacing the entire aviation infrastructure. But these fuels have a massive problem.
Both biofuels and synthetic fuels use tremendous amounts of land. This means that to power the thirsty aviation industry we would need to clear vast swaths of nature to make way for gigantic solar farms, monstrous fields of monoculture crops and massive refineries. The atmospheric carbon emitted may be low, but the extensive damage to nature will be high, causing an entirely different ecological disaster.
This means that aviation can’t purely rely on carbon-neutral fuels to secure its future. They need to become hyper-efficient otherwise their extensive fuel usage could collapse ecosystems. Systems like this A.I will mean they won’t need as much fuel and therefore less nature will be damaged as they switch to carbon-neutral fuels.
A.I wil stop extensive deforestation by making aviation more efficient — Photo by roya ann miller on Unsplash
A.I will be a vital part of this. Not only can it be used to optimise flight paths, but also aircraft design and operations. We have only just scratched the surface of A.I in aviation. Soon almost every aspect of the industry could be optimised by powerful A.I programs. So even though this little saving of 5 million tonnes of carbon dioxide might seem like a drop in the ocean it is actually the start of some truly groundbreaking technology.
So can A.I save aviation?
Not on its own. But A.I could make aviation efficient enough for carbon-neutral fuels to become a genuinely viable option. The future of aviation isn’t certain, but technology like this could at least ensure it survives the pinch as intense carbon regulations kick in. We can all sigh a breath of relief knowing our summer holidays might not be cancelled because of climate change
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